Gold Faces Weekly Losses

 

Gold prices are heading for their steepest weekly decline in more than four months on Friday, pressured in part by rising oil prices and growing inflation concerns.

At 5:00 PM WIB, spot gold (XAU/USD) fell 0.1% to $4,022.53 per troy ounce, putting the precious metal on track for a 3.4% weekly loss. Meanwhile, gold futures declined 0.6% to $4,037.15 per troy ounce, heading toward a 3.5% weekly drop.

Rising Oil Prices Fuel Inflation Concerns

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, climbed again and touched $114 per barrel for the first time since May. Growing speculation over escalating Middle East tensions has raised concerns about further disruptions to supply flows from the major oil-producing region.

Media reports this week indicated that the United States and Israel were considering plans for new strikes against Iran following the US midterm elections in November. Iran has warned that it would retaliate against any attacks, potentially targeting economic and civilian infrastructure around the Persian Gulf.

Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen have continued targeting locations in neighboring Saudi Arabia. On Thursday, state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco reportedly ordered the evacuation of its headquarters in Dhahran, near Bahrain.

Brent crude has gained more than 3% over the week, adding to inflationary pressures ahead of next week's closely watched Federal Reserve policy meeting.

Federal Reserve Policy Weighs on Gold

Although the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its October 27–28 meeting, a rate hike in December is already being anticipated by markets.

Several Fed officials have downplayed the urgency of an immediate rate increase. However, policymakers have emphasized the need to bring inflation back toward the central bank's 2% target.

Higher interest rates can weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. If rising oil prices keep inflation elevated and reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy, gold could face further downward pressure.

Gold Fails to Benefit From Safe-Haven Demand

Gold has also failed to benefit from the recent sell-off in technology stocks and the shift toward the relative safety of US Treasury bonds, according to analysts at ING.

In a research note, the analysts observed that investors appeared more concerned about rising oil prices and their implications for inflation and, ultimately, central bank policy.

“The gold market appears to be focusing more on higher oil prices and what they mean for inflation — and ultimately central bank policy,” the analysts added.

For gold traders, the combination of rising energy prices, inflation risks, and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's next policy decisions remains a key factor to watch. Unless inflation concerns ease or interest rate expectations become more supportive, gold may continue to face pressure as it heads toward the end of the week.

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Geopolitics Pressure Gold

 

Gold Market Drivers

US 10-year Treasury yields initially moved lower before reversing higher in the afternoon. However, the rebound was limited, and yields closed lower again, although the decline was not as steep as the previous day. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) remained broadly weak throughout Wednesday’s trading session. Despite the softer dollar, gold failed to hold its ground or extend its recovery.

Geopolitical developments remained the main obstacle to further gains, with gold’s rebound capped at $4,142 before prices fell back below $4,100 during Thursday’s Asian session.

US and Israel Prepare New Iran Strike Plans

Geopolitical concerns intensified following reports that the US and Israeli militaries had developed specific plans for potential new strikes against Iran after the upcoming US midterm elections on November 3. The New York Times cited US officials and other individuals familiar with the discussions.

The reported targets could include Iranian nuclear facilities, missile and drone storage sites, and energy infrastructure. However, some officials indicated that oil refineries and other oil infrastructure might be avoided to prevent a potential surge in gasoline prices.

Meanwhile, the US military buildup, including the deployment of three aircraft carriers, was reportedly expected to be fully in place by early November.

Nevertheless, it is important to note that plans for potential strikes against Iran have been discussed repeatedly. The Pentagon has presented President Donald Trump with several possible scenarios, while Trump has previously vetoed a return to large-scale hostilities, including earlier this month when both militaries were reportedly preparing for attacks.

Therefore, any proposed US-Israeli military operation would ultimately depend on Trump's decision.

Separately, NBC News reported that US troops and diplomats were being withdrawn or reduced across parts of the Middle East. Citing two US officials, the report described a reduction in the American military presence at US bases throughout the region. The US State Department was also reportedly beginning to order further staff reductions at diplomatic posts.

These measures come amid heightened regional threats and the possibility of US military action against Iran.

The withdrawal of military personnel and diplomats is often interpreted as a sign of rising security risks. Such developments can increase the geopolitical risk premium in crude oil prices, given the Gulf region's critical role in global energy supplies.

Economic Data and Treasury Yields in Focus

On the economic calendar, US Initial Jobless Claims at 19:30 WIB and the Leading Economic Index at 21:00 WIB are the main releases. Initial Jobless Claims are expected to carry greater weight in influencing market movements.

However, neither report is expected to significantly change market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week. As a result, attention remains focused on US Treasury yields and geopolitical developments.

Treasury yields remain a key indicator for gold's direction throughout this week. If yields resume their decline, gold could regain its upward momentum. Conversely, a renewed rise in yields could push gold lower and prompt traders to shift their strategies toward selling.

Traders should also closely monitor developments across the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia, the Houthis, and US-Iran relations, as well as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Any threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or to Saudi energy infrastructure could directly affect physical oil supplies. Confirmation from the Pentagon or the US State Department regarding the scale of troop withdrawals would also help markets determine whether these moves signal an impending escalation or are merely precautionary measures.

Two Key Geopolitical Scenarios for Gold

Traders should pay attention to two potential scenarios that could shape gold's next move.

1. Further Escalation Could Weigh on Gold

An escalation in regional tensions could keep oil prices elevated, reigniting inflation concerns. Higher energy costs could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates or maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer.

This scenario would generally be negative for gold, as higher interest rate expectations and rising Treasury yields tend to reduce the appeal of the non-yielding precious metal.

2. Diplomacy Could Trigger a Gold Rebound

Intensified negotiations or mediation efforts could create a path toward de-escalation, easing inflationary pressures and reducing expectations of further Fed tightening.

If Trump rejects the proposed military strike plans or signals a preference for diplomacy, geopolitical tensions could subside. Under this scenario, gold could find room to rebound as concerns over energy supply disruptions and inflation begin to ease.

Gold Technical Analysis

The daily gold candlestick closed in a hammer pattern, but prices have yet to extend their recovery. Gold has been rejected twice at the $4,155 and $4,142 zones over the past two days. At the time of writing, the precious metal was trading below $4,100 during the Asian session.

This price action increases the risk of a breakdown below the $4,066–$4,073 support zone.

If this support area fails, selling pressure could extend toward $4,000 and potentially $3,965. A decisive break below support would strengthen the bearish outlook and expose gold to further downside.

However, if the $4,066–$4,073 zone holds, buying demand could help stabilize prices and trigger another rebound. In that case, the nearest recovery targets are projected around $4,135 and $4,155, although gains may remain limited.

A more substantial recovery would likely require meaningful geopolitical de-escalation or clear signs that the parties involved are prepared to return to the negotiating table.

For now, traders should closely monitor US Treasury yields, developments in the Middle East, and gold's reaction to the $4,066–$4,073 support zone to assess the next potential market direction.

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Gold Faces Downside Risks

 

Gold Market Overview

Market Drivers

Interestingly, US 10-year Treasury yields rose on Monday and during Tuesday's Asian session before losing momentum and turning lower. However, yields did not fall below Monday's lows. This reversal also undermined the US Dollar's early-session strength, with the greenback eventually closing lower.

Despite the weaker US Dollar and declining Treasury yields, gold failed to extend its gains. The overnight rally stalled at $4,155 before prices reversed lower and ended the session on a weaker note.

Geopolitical developments once again drove market sentiment on Tuesday. Positive headlines surrounding US-Iran mediation initially triggered a sharp decline in oil prices, pushing crude back below $100 per barrel and briefly toward $95. This provided relief for gold, which had initially fallen to around $4,111 during the early Asian session before rebounding quickly to $4,155.

However, the recovery failed to continue as renewed geopolitical uncertainty dampened optimism about a potential diplomatic breakthrough.

Three Geopolitical Risks Pulling Markets in Different Directions

Overall, there has been no significant change in the broader geopolitical landscape. The latest headlines that initially triggered a rapid gold rebound, alongside a sharp decline in oil prices, quickly lost their influence, sending gold lower again.

Nevertheless, gold remains broadly range-bound, with neither bullish nor bearish momentum strong enough to signal a significant change in the overall trend.

Gold briefly climbed back to $4,155 following reports that Iran and the United States were moving closer to a potential agreement that could address both sides' demands. Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan reportedly outlined a framework involving nuclear concessions sought by Washington and the release of frozen Iranian funds.

Under the reported proposal, Iran would agree to inspections of its nuclear facilities by an internationally agreed body, while the United States would release Iran's frozen assets. However, the reports had not been officially confirmed by either side, and gold subsequently reversed lower.

At least three major geopolitical developments remain key concerns for financial markets.

1. Iran–US Relations

Iran and the United States are continuing discussions this week, raising hopes of diplomatic progress. The United States has refrained from launching large-scale attacks against Iran for several weeks, while Iran continues to attack oil tankers navigating the Strait of Hormuz.

The outcome of these negotiations remains crucial for oil supply expectations, inflation risks, and gold price movements. Any meaningful progress toward an agreement could ease concerns over energy disruptions, while a breakdown in negotiations could trigger renewed market volatility.

2. Houthi–Saudi Arabia Tensions

The situation between Houthi forces and Saudi Arabia remains uncertain, with the risk of further escalation still present. Continued attacks targeting Saudi Aramco's energy infrastructure and Riyadh's airport have heightened concerns about potential disruptions to regional energy supplies.

Markets therefore need to remain alert to the possibility of additional supply risks if Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia persist or intensify. A deterioration in the situation could push oil prices higher, potentially increasing inflationary pressures and weighing on gold.

3. Russia–Ukraine Conflict

The unilateral energy ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump last week failed to hold after Russia launched retaliatory attacks following Ukrainian strikes on Russian diesel infrastructure.

Although concerns were partially eased by an agreement between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin allowing Russia to sell diesel and other energy products to global markets, investors will continue monitoring diplomatic efforts and the risk of further military escalation between Russia and Ukraine.

Ultimately, successful mediation could create opportunities for de-escalation, potentially sending oil prices lower and supporting gold. Conversely, failed negotiations could increase the risk of further conflict, pushing oil prices higher and exposing gold to additional downside pressure.

Treasury Yields and Geopolitics Remain Key Drivers

No major US economic data releases are scheduled for tonight, leaving geopolitical developments and US Treasury yields as the primary drivers of market sentiment.

US Treasury yields remain a critical indicator for gold's direction throughout the week. If yields resume their decline, gold could regain its upward momentum. Conversely, a rebound in yields could place renewed pressure on the precious metal, potentially prompting traders to shift their strategies toward selling.

Traders should also closely monitor developments in the Middle East, particularly tensions involving Saudi Arabia and Houthi forces, as well as US-Iran negotiations and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Two potential scenarios could determine gold's next move:

• Geopolitical escalation: Rising tensions could push oil prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns and strengthening expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. This scenario would generally be negative for gold.

• Diplomatic progress and de-escalation: Successful negotiations could reduce geopolitical risks and ease pressure on oil prices. Lower energy costs could moderate inflation concerns and reduce expectations of further Fed tightening, creating a more supportive environment for gold.

Overall, gold remains vulnerable to renewed selling pressure if geopolitical tensions intensify and Treasury yields rebound. However, sustained diplomatic progress and falling yields could help the precious metal recover. Traders should closely monitor these two key drivers before determining their next market positions.

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Gold Tests Support

 

Gold Market Drivers

US 10-year Treasury yields rebounded at the close of Monday's trading session, briefly strengthening the US dollar and making it difficult for gold to extend its gains. However, the dollar weakened this morning, while US Treasury yields opened lower, allowing gold to rebound after its earlier decline.

Geopolitical developments dominated market sentiment on Monday. Oil prices initially moved lower before reversing higher later in the evening. Nevertheless, the relatively limited trading range helped gold recover from some of its earlier losses.

Oil Markets Remain Vulnerable to Geopolitical Risks

Oil prices initially declined following reports that the United States had lifted sanctions on Russian fuel. The move helped gold advance during the early Asian session as lower oil prices eased some inflation concerns.

However, oil prices remained vulnerable to other geopolitical risks, eventually reversing their earlier decline and moving higher by Monday evening.

Two developments contributed to renewed market concerns.

First, Iran's navy reportedly claimed that the United States had launched an attack on the Konarak naval base using two light projectiles early in the morning. The report briefly raised concerns about a broader escalation, although the anticipated escalation did not materialize, allowing oil market concerns to ease.

Second, Yemen's Houthi group reportedly claimed responsibility for approximately six attacks against Saudi Arabia over the preceding 48 hours. The alleged targets included Aramco's Yanbu oil facilities, the Shaybah oil field, and airports in Riyadh and Abha.

The reported attacks also prompted Saudi Arabia to cancel this year's “Davos in the Desert” conference amid concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions.

These developments continue to expose oil markets to supply-side risks, potentially reinforcing inflation concerns and influencing expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy.

US Economic Data and Treasury Yields in Focus

The US economic calendar is relatively light, with housing starts scheduled for 7:30 PM WIB and pending home sales due at 9:00 PM WIB. Both releases are considered medium-impact indicators, but their influence on gold prices is expected to remain limited.

US Treasury yields will remain a key driver of gold prices later tonight and throughout the week.

If Treasury yields resume their decline, gold could regain upward momentum. Conversely, a rebound in yields could put renewed pressure on the precious metal and encourage traders to shift toward selling strategies.

Geopolitical developments will also require close monitoring, particularly tensions involving Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, Iran and the United States, as well as the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Two potential scenarios could influence gold prices:

1. Further geopolitical escalation: Rising tensions could push oil prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns and increasing expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. This scenario could weigh on gold prices as higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

2. Intensified negotiations or mediation: Diplomatic progress could create a path toward de-escalation, easing pressure on oil prices and reducing inflation concerns. This could lower expectations for additional rate hikes and provide support for gold.

Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Faces Key Support

The daily candlestick closed bearish after gold failed to break above the $4,200 level for the second consecutive session. Friday's high reached $4,199, while Monday's high stood at $4,190. Prices subsequently declined to $4,136 during Monday evening before the session closed.

Technically, this price action could open the door to further downside movement. However, stronger selling pressure would likely be needed to break below the October 15, 2026, low at $4,099.

As long as the $4,099 support level remains intact, the downside pressure could remain limited, leaving room for a potential recovery.

On the upside, gold needs to reclaim the $4,190–$4,199 resistance zone, corresponding to Friday's and Monday's highs. A stronger bullish signal would emerge if prices break above $4,227.

For now, geopolitical developments and US Treasury yields remain the primary factors shaping gold's direction, particularly as the US economic calendar offers relatively few major data releases.

Traders should closely monitor the $4,099 support level and the $4,190–$4,199 resistance zone for potential breakout signals that could determine XAU/USD's next move.

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Gold Tracks Yields

 

Gold Market Drivers

US 10-year Treasury yields closed lower again, despite an initial rebound following three consecutive sessions of pressure. This morning, however, Treasury yields opened with a downward gap, while gold moved in the opposite direction, opening higher. The US dollar also weakened at the start of the session, extending the losses recorded over the previous two trading days last week.

Kevin Warsh’s remarks during a dialogue session with the IMF director on Friday offered few clues about the Federal Reserve’s policy direction ahead of its October 27–28 meeting. With limited US economic data scheduled this week, aside from the services and manufacturing PMI reports due on Friday, Treasury yields are likely to remain a key driver of gold prices. Oil prices will also attract attention as traders assess the latest developments in the Middle East.

Oil Volatility and Fed Rate Hike Bets

After climbing to around $101 per barrel on Friday evening, oil prices opened lower on Monday. Two factors contributed to the decline: President Donald Trump’s decision to lift sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy, and the latest futures contract opening below the previous contract’s closing price.

Nevertheless, oil prices are expected to remain volatile as geopolitical conditions continue to shift. Trump’s executive orders easing sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy have drawn bipartisan criticism. However, Trump stated on social media that the measures were intended to keep Russia engaged in peace negotiations with Ukraine.

For now, the policy shift is viewed as a potential counterbalance to renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Over the weekend, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy reportedly said that an oil tanker had exploded after striking a naval mine in the southern part of the Strait of Hormuz, citing Iranian media reports.

Another development that could ease market concerns is the possibility of Pakistan’s army chief visiting Iran this week. The prospect has raised hopes for continued diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran.

However, reports about preparations for potential US strikes against Iran dominated headlines throughout last week. Trump did not rule out military action and reportedly raised the possibility of using a MOAB (Mother of All Bombs) against Iran. Nevertheless, he also signaled that an attack might not take place before the November 3 midterm elections, offering some temporary relief to geopolitical tensions.

Meanwhile, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike next week have continued to decline. As of Monday morning during the Asian session, the CME FedWatch Tool showed a 14.9% probability of a rate hike on October 28, down from 16.1% previously.

With few major US economic releases scheduled this week and the Federal Reserve entering its blackout period, during which officials refrain from commenting on monetary policy, interest rate expectations may remain relatively stable.

However, a further escalation in geopolitical tensions could push oil prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns and potentially strengthening expectations for another Fed rate hike.

US Economic Data and Treasury Yields in Focus

Other US economic releases are unlikely to have a significant impact on market expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Among this week’s scheduled reports, the US services and manufacturing PMI data due on Friday could have some influence on gold prices, although the figures may not directly change interest rate expectations.

Beyond economic data and geopolitical developments, US Treasury yields are likely to play a crucial role in determining gold’s direction this week.

If Treasury yields continue to decline, gold could extend its recovery as lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Conversely, a rebound in yields could put renewed pressure on gold prices and prompt traders to reconsider their strategies, potentially shifting toward selling opportunities.

Geopolitical developments will also require close attention, particularly tensions involving Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthi group, US-Iran relations, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Two scenarios could shape gold’s near-term outlook:

• Diplomatic progress and de-escalation: Intensified negotiations or mediation efforts could reduce geopolitical tensions and ease pressure on energy prices. Lower oil prices could subsequently moderate inflation concerns and reduce expectations for further Fed tightening. This scenario would generally be supportive of gold.

• Further geopolitical escalation: Renewed hostilities could drive oil prices higher and revive concerns about persistent inflation. Such developments could strengthen expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy, potentially weighing on gold prices.

Gold Technical Analysis: Doji Signals Indecision

On the daily chart, gold formed a doji candlestick resembling a spinning-top pattern. Technically, this formation reflects market indecision, with neither buyers nor sellers establishing clear dominance.

The next directional move will depend largely on the following candlestick’s closing price relative to the previous session’s trading range.

A bullish close above Friday’s high of $4,199 would strengthen the case for further upside and suggest that buyers are regaining control. Conversely, a bearish close below Friday’s low of $4,147 would increase downside risks and indicate that selling pressure is gaining momentum.

Until a clearer technical signal emerges, gold may remain sensitive to changes in Treasury yields and geopolitical headlines.

With limited economic data scheduled for Monday, traders are likely to focus on developments outside the traditional economic calendar. For now, the US 10-year Treasury yield and geopolitical risks remain the two key indicators to monitor as the gold market searches for its next catalyst.

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Gold Shifts Focus

 

Market Drivers

US 10-year Treasury yields and the US dollar continued to decline during Thursday’s trading session, helping gold recover from the selling pressure that emerged following the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales data triggered a less severe reaction in gold than Wednesday’s inflation figures.

US PPI rose 1.3% month over month, significantly exceeding expectations of 0.6% and accelerating from the previously revised 0.5% reading.

Retail sales increased 0.8%, beating forecasts of 0.3% but slowing from the previous month’s 1.3% growth. Core retail sales also climbed 0.9%, above expectations of 0.6% but below the previous reading of 1.4%.

Meanwhile, regional manufacturing indicators delivered mixed signals. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell from 37.8 to 20.9, while the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index rose from 7.60 to 25.50.

Kevin Warsh Keeps Markets Guessing

One possible reason gold avoided a deeper decline despite stronger-than-expected economic data was that investors preferred to wait for comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings.

Warsh participated in a question-and-answer session with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

During the discussion, Warsh said the global economic environment had generally evolved in line with the Fed’s expectations since the September FOMC meeting. He reiterated the central bank’s commitment to price stability but declined to offer specific guidance on its remaining policy decisions in 2026.

The Fed has two scheduled policy meetings remaining this year, in October and December. Warsh described these meetings as important opportunities to assess economic growth, employment conditions, and inflation.

His cautious approach came as little surprise. Warsh has repeatedly argued that the Fed should avoid communicating its intentions too explicitly, allowing markets to form their own assessments of economic conditions. He has also consistently resisted providing advance signals about future interest rate decisions.

AI Investment Could Complicate Inflation

Much of Warsh’s discussion focused on investment and artificial intelligence (AI). He described the surge in structural investment as an important positive development for the global economy.

According to Warsh, AI technology has the potential to boost productivity and generate greater economic wealth. However, the transition is likely to be uneven, while its short-term impact on employment remains uncertain.

He also noted that AI investment could increase demand before productivity gains deliver supply-side benefits that help ease inflationary pressures. This dynamic could make it more challenging for central banks to assess economic data and determine the appropriate monetary policy response.

If AI-related investment increases spending in the near term while productivity improvements take longer to materialize, inflationary pressures could intensify before the longer-term benefits emerge.

This view aligns with Warsh’s previous argument that current interest rates may not be sufficiently restrictive to slow economic activity.

The Fed is also scheduled to hold an AI-related hearing in the San Francisco Bay Area on November 16. Meanwhile, its next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for October 27–28.

Economic Data and Geopolitics Remain in Focus

The next major US economic release is industrial production, scheduled for 20:15 WIB. The data is not expected to have a significant impact on gold unless it delivers a substantial surprise.

Investors will also monitor whether other Fed officials make additional comments following Warsh’s remarks at the IMF meetings.

Geopolitical developments remain another key factor heading into the end of the trading session. There have been no significant changes in the Middle East, with market concerns still centered on tensions involving the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, developments in oil markets, and diplomatic mediation between Iran and the United States.

Any de-escalation in geopolitical tensions could support further gains in gold by easing uncertainty and potentially reducing inflation concerns associated with energy prices. Conversely, an escalation could complicate the market outlook and limit gold’s upward momentum, depending on its impact on the US dollar, Treasury yields, and safe-haven demand.

Treasury Yields Could Determine Gold’s Next Move

Beyond economic data and geopolitical developments, US Treasury yields are likely to play a crucial role in determining gold’s next direction.

Warsh’s remarks did not prove as hawkish as some market participants had feared, leaving bond yields as an important driver for the precious metal.

If US Treasury yields continue to decline, gold could extend its recovery as lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.

Conversely, a rebound in Treasury yields could put renewed pressure on gold prices and potentially force traders to reconsider their strategies, including shifting from buying to selling.

For now, the direction of US Treasury yields remains a key signal for gold traders as they weigh the latest economic data, the Fed’s policy outlook, and geopolitical risks.

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Gold Targets $4,217

 

Dupoin Futures Indonesia forecasts that global Gold prices (XAU/USD) could move higher on Thursday, October 15, 2026, with potential upside targets at $4,195 and $4,217, provided the key support level remains intact.

According to Dupoin's technical analysis, the bullish outlook remains valid as long as Gold holds above the $4,110 support zone.

“Upside potential remains open as long as $4,110 holds as support, with targets at $4,195 and $4,217,” Dupoin stated in its analysis.

However, Dupoin also outlined an alternative scenario if Gold prices break below the $4,110 support level. In that case, XAU/USD could extend its decline toward $4,073 and $4,051.

“The alternative strategy below $4,110 points to $4,073 and $4,051,” Dupoin noted.

Gold Technical Analysis

Technical indicators suggest that Gold's near-term outlook remains constructive, with buying momentum showing signs of strength.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading above the neutral 50 level, indicating that bullish momentum remains relatively dominant.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is positioned above its signal line and remains in positive territory. This configuration reinforces the possibility of further upside in the near term.

From a moving-average perspective, XAU/USD is trading above the 20-period Moving Average (MA) at $4,104 and the 50-period MA at $4,126. Holding above these indicators suggests that the short-term price structure remains supportive of a potential recovery.

Gold is also reported to be trading above the upper Bollinger Band, reflecting strong buying pressure. However, traders should remain alert to the possibility of a short-term pullback after a relatively strong advance, as prices may be vulnerable to profit-taking.

XAU/USD Price Outlook: Key Levels to Watch

The $4,110 level remains the key technical threshold for determining Gold's next move.

As long as prices hold above this support, the upside targets at $4,195 and $4,217 remain in focus. A sustained move higher could reinforce the bullish outlook and extend the recovery.

Conversely, a decisive break below $4,110 would weaken the bullish structure and expose Gold to further losses toward $4,073 and $4,051.

Gold traders will therefore closely monitor price action around $4,110 to assess whether bullish momentum can continue or selling pressure is likely to return.

For context, XAU/USD closed lower at $4,096 on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, ahead of Thursday's projected recovery.

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Inflation Drives Gold

 

Gold Market Outlook

US Treasury yields on 10-year notes declined, putting additional pressure on the US dollar and helping prevent gold prices from extending their losses overnight. However, markets remain cautious amid escalating geopolitical tensions and anticipation of the latest US inflation data due later today.

Rising oil prices have renewed concerns about inflation, creating headwinds for gold. Nevertheless, comments from Federal Reserve officials helped ease some market anxiety, allowing gold to rebound toward the end of Tuesday’s trading session.

Collins Highlights Inflation Risks, Williams Calms Markets

Susan Collins, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said economic uncertainty remains elevated and that she is monitoring how broadly inflationary pressures are spreading throughout the economy. Her comments followed earlier remarks supporting another interest rate hike before the end of 2026.

Collins highlighted investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers, tariffs, and energy costs associated with the Middle East conflict as potential sources of persistent inflation.

These factors are important for markets because higher gasoline prices can directly increase headline inflation. However, broader increases in goods and services prices would suggest that inflationary pressures are becoming more deeply embedded in the economy, potentially giving the Fed a stronger reason to tighten monetary policy further.

This distinction could provide important clues about how markets respond to tonight’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.

Meanwhile, John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, offered a relatively reassuring message. Although he reiterated that one additional interest rate hike this year could be appropriate, Williams said he currently sees no need for another increase in 2027.

Williams expects inflation to slow significantly next year, potentially moving closer to the Fed’s 2% target. He noted that broader price pressures outside the AI technology and energy sectors remain limited and that he sees no evidence of labor market conditions driving inflation higher.

His comments helped ease concerns about additional monetary tightening in 2027, putting downward pressure on the US dollar and Treasury yields. However, Williams did not signal that interest rate cuts are on the horizon.

Despite the latest developments, geopolitical risks remain elevated following Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco energy facilities and retaliatory Saudi strikes against the Houthis. Uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire also continues to influence market sentiment.

Against this backdrop, investors are likely to treat the upcoming CPI report as a key indicator ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for October 27–28.

US CPI Forecast and Potential Market Reactions

The US CPI report is scheduled for release at 19:30 WIB. Headline inflation is forecast to rise by 0.6% month over month (MoM) and 3.7% year over year (YoY), although some economic calendars indicate a consensus estimate of 3.6% YoY.

Core CPI is expected to increase by 0.2% MoM and 2.4% YoY, while some calendars show a forecast of 2.5% YoY.

The main focus will be on core inflation and the breadth of price increases across the economy. A stronger core CPI reading could revive expectations for an October Fed rate hike, while softer inflation could give policymakers more room to delay further tightening.

The following scenarios outline potential market reactions to the CPI release.

Scenario 1: Inflation Exceeds Expectations

Assumptions: Headline CPI rises above 3.7%, while core CPI exceeds 2.6%.

Potential market reaction: The US dollar could strengthen sharply, putting substantial pressure on gold. XAU/USD could fall toward multiple lower support levels, with a break below the psychological $4,000 threshold becoming a significant downside risk.

Scenario 2: Inflation Falls Below Expectations

Assumptions: Headline CPI comes in below 3.5%, while core CPI falls below 2.4%.

Potential market reaction: The US dollar could weaken significantly, potentially supporting a strong gold rebound. XAU/USD could advance toward several higher resistance levels, with a breakout above $4,255 becoming a possibility.

Scenario 3: Mixed Data With Softer Core Inflation

Assumptions: Headline CPI remains above 3.6%, while core CPI falls below 2.4%.

Potential market reaction: The US dollar could strengthen moderately, initially weighing on gold before a potential recovery. Downside pressure could be limited around $4,100, or potentially $4,060, followed by a rebound toward $4,200–$4,235.

Scenario 4: Mixed Data With Hotter Core Inflation

Assumptions: Headline CPI comes in below 3.5%, while core CPI rises above 2.6%.

Potential market reaction: The US dollar could weaken modestly, but gold’s upside may remain limited because elevated core inflation could sustain concerns about further Fed tightening. A decline below $4,060 would remain possible.

Given the unstable geopolitical environment, traders should be cautious about assuming that the initial market reaction to CPI will persist. Oil prices and developments in the Middle East could continue to influence sentiment, meaning geopolitical risks may prevent a sustained gold recovery until clearer signs of de-escalation emerge.

Gold Technical Analysis: Daily Chart

The daily gold candlestick closed bearish, although its structure resembles both a shooting star and an inverted hammer.

Following the rebound that began on Thursday, October 8, and the subsequent correction on Monday, October 12, the candle could be interpreted as an inverted hammer. This formation would suggest the potential for gold to resume the upward move that began on October 8.

Conversely, if the candle is viewed as a rejection of resistance near $4,217, the high recorded on Monday, October 12, it could represent a shooting star within the broader decline that began on September 28. Under this interpretation, downside pressure would remain dominant.

The next daily close will be crucial in determining which scenario gains confirmation.

If gold closes below Tuesday’s low of $4,146, the shooting-star interpretation would gain strength, increasing the likelihood of a continued decline. This bearish signal would be reinforced by a hotter-than-expected CPI reading.

On the other hand, a daily close above Tuesday’s high of $4,200 would strengthen the recovery scenario. In that case, resistance between $4,217 and $4,227 could become the next upside target, particularly if inflation data comes in softer than expected.

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Gold Rally Depends on Yields

 

Market Drivers

The US bond market reopened on Tuesday following the Columbus Day holiday on Monday. So far, the bond market has shown little reaction to the escalation in geopolitical tensions over the weekend. As a result, US 10-year Treasury yields have continued to move lower since the start of the Asian session.

The decline in Treasury yields has been accompanied by a temporary weakening of the US Dollar during Asian trading, allowing Gold prices to withstand early-session selling pressure and rebound toward the $4,185 area.

The US Dollar strengthened briefly at the start of Monday's trading session, putting pressure on Gold prices through the New York session. Another headwind came from hawkish comments by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack. However, with the US bond market closed for the holiday, Gold's trading range remained relatively limited throughout the day.

Hammack Maintains Hawkish Stance

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack remained in focus following her comments on monetary policy, particularly in the absence of major US economic data releases overnight. Her remarks carried a hawkish tone, with Hammack maintaining that additional monetary tightening could be necessary and expressing concern that inflation expectations might begin to become less anchored.

Hammack argued that a higher neutral interest rate suggests current monetary policy may not be sufficiently restrictive to slow economic activity. She added that interest rates might need to rise further to curb demand and bring inflation down from its current range of approximately 2.5% to 3.0%.

Against this backdrop, Hammack said she remained open to the possibility of another interest rate increase following September's hike. She hopes tighter monetary policy will help cool corporate investment and wealth-driven consumption without pushing the unemployment rate above 4.2%.

One of Hammack's key concerns is that inflation psychology may be becoming entrenched. She pointed to investment pressures associated with artificial intelligence (AI), which could spread beyond data centers to other sectors of the economy.

Markets currently expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged in October. However, Wednesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report could provide further clarity on whether the Fed will maintain its current policy stance or consider additional rate increases.

Gold Technical Analysis

Daily Chart: Bearish Candlestick Signals Caution

The daily Gold candlestick closed bearish, resembling a shooting star, with its upper wick slightly longer than its lower wick. The pattern emerged after the rally stalled at $4,217, with prices failing to establish a higher high throughout the session.

At the same time, downside pressure was contained around the $4,154 area, in line with expectations, before Gold rebounded to close near $4,171.

From a technical perspective, this candlestick formation suggests that a short-term downside correction or potential reversal remains possible.

Escalating geopolitical tensions between the Houthi group and Saudi Arabia have pushed oil prices higher, raising concerns that the reopening of the US bond market could trigger a rise in Treasury yields as investors respond to geopolitical risks. Higher yields would typically weigh on non-yielding Gold.

However, Treasury yields were moving lower at the time of writing, allowing Gold to recover from its initial Asian-session weakness. After rebounding from the $4,150 area, prices climbed toward $4,180.

For now, $4,217 represents the key psychological resistance level, while $4,150 serves as psychological support. The direction of Treasury yields remains an important factor in determining whether Gold can extend its recovery or face renewed selling pressure.

H4 Chart: Correction Retests Support

On the four-hour (H4) chart, the decline into Tuesday morning remains consistent with the expected corrective move toward the brown zone between $4,136 and $4,169.

This correction followed Gold's breakout above the falling wedge resistance at $4,159 on Friday. The breakout triggered a rally toward the green zone between $4,202 and $4,254, although the advance stalled at a temporary high of $4,217.

Gold subsequently retreated, forming a swing low overnight that extended into Tuesday morning.

Technically, the current price action remains consistent with a potential retest of support or the previous swing low as part of a normal corrective phase following the breakout.

The $4,136–$4,169 zone remains an important area to monitor. If Gold can hold above this region, the broader recovery structure could remain intact. However, a decisive break below the zone would increase the risk of further downside correction.

Overall, Gold's near-term direction will depend on the interaction between US Treasury yields, the US Dollar, incoming inflation data, and geopolitical developments. A sustained decline in yields could support another recovery attempt, while renewed yield strength could limit gains and bring the $4,150 support area back into focus.

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Gold Nears $4,200

 

Gold prices edged higher on Monday as traders assessed US President Donald Trump’s announcement of an immediate energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, while renewed attacks in the Middle East threatened to intensify inflationary pressures.

At 07:30, XAU/USD rose 0.3% to $4,206.86 per ounce after gaining 1.3% last week. Silver (XAG/USD) advanced 0.6% to $60.99 per ounce, while platinum and palladium also traded higher. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil prices fell 1.2%.

Russia-Ukraine Energy Truce Offsets Middle East Risks

Trump said an immediate energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine had taken effect, raising hopes of improved global fuel supply conditions.

Earlier, Trump had urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to halt attacks on Russian oil refineries. He also indicated that Moscow had agreed to release diesel supplies to global markets, potentially easing concerns over fuel shortages.

However, renewed violence in the Middle East continues to threaten regional energy security. Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh was reportedly targeted by Houthi forces on Sunday, following an attack on Saturday that killed 12 people and injured more than 300.

The Saturday incident was reported as the deadliest attack in Saudi Arabia since the Iran war began in late February.

The Houthis described their attacks as retaliation for what they called Saudi aggression, including strikes against an airport in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa. The latest escalation has raised concerns that the conflict could spread further across the region, potentially pushing energy prices higher and strengthening the case for tighter monetary policy.

Although oil prices have eased, gold has lost approximately one-fifth of its value since the US-Iran war erupted in late February.

Higher energy costs and broader inflation risks have prompted some central banks to raise interest rates, creating a headwind for gold because the precious metal does not pay interest. When borrowing costs rise, yield-bearing assets can become more attractive relative to gold.

Central Bank Demand Supports Gold Prices

According to ANZ analysts, gold’s recent performance has been supported by stronger investment demand, with inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reaching their highest level in four years, based on Bloomberg data.

The analysts attributed growing investor interest to mounting fiscal pressures worldwide, particularly concerns over government debt-servicing costs and expanding money supply. Central banks have also continued to increase their gold reserves, providing additional support for the precious metal.

The People’s Bank of China added 740,000 ounces of gold to its reserves in September, extending its buying streak to 23 consecutive months.

Continued central bank purchases and strong ETF inflows could help cushion gold against short-term market volatility, particularly as investors seek protection against fiscal uncertainty and currency risks.

Nevertheless, ANZ warned that inflation risks could limit further gains if persistent price pressures prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy further.

Higher interest rates remain a major concern for gold, as rising borrowing costs increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. If inflation accelerates and the Fed adopts a more restrictive stance, gold could face renewed selling pressure.

Gold Outlook: Inflation and Energy Supply in Focus

Gold prices remain influenced by competing forces. Hopes of improved fuel supplies following the proposed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire could ease inflation concerns and support the precious metal. Conversely, escalating Middle East tensions could disrupt energy markets, push oil prices higher, and reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy.

Investors will therefore continue monitoring developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, energy supply risks in the Middle East, and the outlook for US interest rates.

For XAU/USD, the ability to sustain gains above $4,200 will remain an important near-term signal. However, the broader direction of gold prices will depend on whether safe-haven demand and central bank purchases can offset the pressure from elevated inflation risks and potentially higher interest rates.

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Gold Rebounds

 

Trump Delays Iran Attack, Gold Finds Relief Ahead of Weekend

Gold Market Drivers

The US 10-year Treasury yield closed lower for the third consecutive session, with Thursday's decline proving more pronounced than the previous two sessions. The drop helped curb the US Dollar's advance and provided relief for the gold market, with XAU/USD rebounding toward the $4,180 area by Friday afternoon.

US President Donald Trump's statement on Thursday that the United States would not attack Iran before the early-November midterm elections helped ease geopolitical tensions. The announcement pushed Treasury yields lower and supported gold prices, which had faced pressure over the previous week amid rising bond yields and a lack of major economic data releases.

TACO Trade: Trump's Iran Decision Eases Market Tensions

Developments surrounding US-Iran mediation had shown little encouraging progress over the past week. Tensions intensified over the previous three days after reports emerged that the Pentagon had asked US Central Command (CENTCOM) to prepare for a potential military strike against Iran.

At the time, Trump indicated that he did not expect an agreement with Tehran and was considering military action before the US midterm elections.

However, the situation shifted on Thursday. The Pentagon had reportedly developed several options for a short, intensive three-day military operation against Iran, targeting missile and drone capabilities, state facilities, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) command centers. Senior officials had also discussed the plans at Camp David the previous Friday, while military commanders reportedly stood ready to act within days if the president changed his policy.

More recent reports indicated that Trump had vetoed five proposals for major operations against Iran or Houthi forces over the preceding months. He subsequently stated that the United States would not attack Iran before the midterm elections.

The announcement helped ease geopolitical concerns and pushed oil prices lower during the Asian trading session. For now, markets appear to be paying greater attention to Trump's latest statements than to reports of military preparations.

The shift reflects what traders commonly call the “TACO trade,” a market reaction in which investors anticipate that aggressive political threats may ultimately be postponed, softened, or reversed. Such developments can trigger a repricing of risk-sensitive assets, including gold, oil, and the US Dollar.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations in Focus

The US economic calendar is centered on the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations due later on Friday.

Stronger-than-expected readings could put gold under renewed pressure by supporting the US Dollar and Treasury yields. Conversely, softer data could help extend gold's recovery by easing concerns about persistent inflation and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy.

Nevertheless, market reactions may remain relatively limited as investors focus on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for October 14.

Ahead of Columbus Day on Monday, the US bond market is scheduled to close for the holiday. The absence of Treasury trading could temporarily reduce pressure from the bond market, potentially allowing gold to consolidate after a week of rising yields.

This environment may provide room for traders to unwind some of the tension created by the recent bond market sell-off, offering additional short-term support for gold.

Gold Price Forecast: Daily Chart Signals a Potential Recovery

The daily candlestick chart closed bullish, while the latest two candles appear to be forming a potential bullish harami pattern. In technical analysis, this formation can signal a possible reversal following a decline, although confirmation from subsequent price action is still required.

Despite the improving technical picture, the bullish outlook remains fragile. Gold needs to break decisively above $4,227 to strengthen the recovery scenario.

If XAU/USD fails to overcome this resistance, selling pressure could return and leave the market vulnerable to another decline.

On the downside, a move below $4,120 would increase the risk of renewed bearish momentum. The more important support zone lies between $4,100 and $4,103. A decisive break below this area could trigger further losses.

For now, Trump's decision to rule out an attack on Iran before the midterm elections has helped calm geopolitical tensions and supported gold's rebound. However, the sustainability of the recovery will depend on price action around key technical levels and the direction of US yields and the Dollar.

XAU/USD H4 Analysis: Falling Wedge Breakout Needs Confirmation

On the four-hour (H4) chart, gold has moved above the $4,149–$4,162 zone and broken through the falling wedge resistance near $4,164.

A falling wedge breakout can signal a potential bullish reversal, suggesting that selling pressure may be weakening. However, the breakout still requires confirmation before it can be considered reliable.

Traders should monitor whether at least two consecutive H4 candles remain above the $4,164 level. Holding above this threshold would strengthen the case for a valid bullish breakout.

Conversely, if the price closes back below $4,160, the move could be classified as a false breakout, raising the risk of renewed selling pressure.

The next three to four hours are therefore important for determining whether gold can sustain its move above resistance or whether the latest recovery will lose momentum.

Key Gold Price Levels to Watch

• Resistance: $4,227 — a decisive break is needed to strengthen the bullish outlook.

• H4 breakout confirmation: $4,164 — holding above this level would support the falling wedge breakout.

• H4 false breakout warning: $4,160 — a close below this level could invalidate the breakout attempt.

• Immediate support: $4,120 — a break below this level could revive bearish momentum.

• Major support zone: $4,100–$4,103 — a decisive breakdown could open the door to further losses.

Overall, gold is attempting to recover as easing geopolitical tensions and falling Treasury yields provide temporary relief. However, the bullish outlook remains conditional on a sustained breakout above key resistance levels. Until XAU/USD moves convincingly above $4,227, traders should remain alert to the possibility of renewed downside pressure.

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Gold Awaits Catalyst

Gold Rebounds, but the Market Is Still Waiting for a Major Catalyst

The 10-year US Treasury yield touched 5.365% before reversing lower toward the end of the trading session. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remained strong, limiting gold's recovery after XAU/USD touched $4,066. With economic data relatively limited, gold has struggled to find a stronger catalyst to resume its broader upside momentum.

A strong 10-year Treasury auction eventually helped push the benchmark yield lower. Meanwhile, the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed that most policymakers expected another interest rate hike could still be appropriate toward the end of the year.

Middle East Risks Keep Oil Prices Elevated

Oil prices moved higher again as investors reassessed a fresh wave of geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

Reports from the Pentagon said the US military had ordered US Central Command (CENTCOM) to complete preparations ahead of a possible resumption of large-scale combat operations in Iran. No final decision has been made, but speculation suggests a potential conflict could occur before the US midterm elections in November.

US President Donald Trump also said he was not interested in reaching an agreement with Iran in the near term.

Meanwhile, another report said a tanker approximately 51 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar, was hit by a projectile. Reports indicated casualties, raising concerns that the incident could trigger a stronger US response toward Iran.

The market is also monitoring the possibility of continued conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia claimed that the Houthis had targeted King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh with ballistic missiles.

Oil markets are additionally facing supply concerns related to storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico, adding another layer of uncertainty to the energy outlook.

China Market Reopens After Golden Week

Beyond pressure from the Fed minutes, which pointed to the possibility of one more rate hike before the end of 2026, the gold market received some support as China returned from its Golden Week holiday.

Traditionally, Golden Week marks the beginning of the peak season for gold buying in China. However, Citigroup said preliminary consumption data during the holiday period was disappointing. Official data on tourism and consumer spending is expected to be released later, which could provide a clearer picture of Chinese demand.

The reopening of the Chinese market remains an important factor for gold, particularly given China's role as one of the world's largest gold consumers.

US Jobless Claims in Focus

Tonight's economic calendar will focus on US initial jobless claims, scheduled for release at 19:30 WIB. The report is expected to show an increase from 198K to 200K.

However, jobless claims have generated relatively limited reactions in gold in recent weeks. At the same time, weekly claims have frequently put pressure on the precious metal when the actual figures come in slightly stronger than expected.

Overall, gold appears to be waiting for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on October 14, which could become a key catalyst for the next major move. Until then, XAU/USD may remain relatively range-bound through the end of the week.

Markets will continue to monitor geopolitical developments, US-Iran relations, and movements in Treasury yields.

Gold Technical Outlook

The daily candlestick closed bearish, indicating that downside pressure remains present. Gold's decline stalled at $4,066, followed by a rebound toward $4,143 this morning.

However, the recovery does not yet indicate strong buying momentum. In other words, the current rebound remains vulnerable and could quickly lose momentum if buyers fail to push prices higher.

Downside risks remain significant, particularly because gold lacks a strong near-term catalyst capable of triggering a sustained recovery. The October 14 US CPI report is likely to be one of the most closely watched events by gold traders.

Meanwhile, Treasury yields and the status of US mediation efforts between the United States and Iran remain key factors weighing on gold.

From a technical perspective, we continue to see potential downside targets around $4,045 and $4,000, while a deeper decline toward $3,965 remains possible.

On the bullish side, gold would need to break and sustain gains above $4,220 to open the door to a stronger reversal and improve the short-term bullish outlook.

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Gold Tests Support

 

• XAU/USD is correcting after its previous rebound and is approaching the two-month low near $4,100.

• The US Dollar strengthened on Wednesday as investors positioned ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting minutes.

• Higher oil prices, with Brent crude moving back above $100, provided additional support for the US Dollar.

Gold (XAU/USD) came under renewed selling pressure after rising on Tuesday, extending its broader downward trend as the US Dollar strengthened across the market ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes.

XAU/USD was trading below $4,120 after retreating from the $4,180 area reached on Tuesday, bringing the precious metal closer to its two-month low of $4,104.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of six major currencies, recovered from earlier losses as investors became increasingly reluctant to sell the greenback ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Meanwhile, oil prices surged amid reports of renewed tensions in the Middle East. Higher energy prices put additional pressure on several major currencies competing with the US Dollar, particularly the Euro, while simultaneously supporting the greenback.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to a 3.75%-4.00% target range. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also delivered a relatively hawkish message.

However, expectations for another rate hike in October have faded following weaker inflation and labor-market data, along with mixed comments from Federal Reserve policymakers.

Despite the decline in October rate-hike expectations, markets continue to anticipate another rate increase in December, with at least one additional hike potentially coming in early 2027.

Technical Analysis: $4,100 Support in Focus

XAU/USD was trading around $4,119, maintaining a bearish short-term bias while remaining below a descending trendline extending from the mid-August high.

Momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart also remain bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) is holding below 40, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, both signaling continued downside pressure.

A decisive break below the medium-term low at $4,104 would expose the late-July and early-August lows around the psychological $4,000 level. A sustained decline below that area could then bring the year-to-date low near $3,941 into focus.

On the upside, Gold bulls need to reclaim and sustain gains above the descending resistance trendline, currently near $4,200, followed by the upper boundary of the two-week trading range around $4,227.

A sustained move above these resistance levels would strengthen the bullish case and shift attention toward the September 25 high near $4,310. Further gains could then target the September 11 and September 18 highs above $4,400.

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