Gold Tests Support

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Holds Key Support Near $4,300

Gold prices (XAU/USD) edged higher on Friday as the U.S. dollar’s recovery stalled ahead of the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. However, the precious metal struggled to reclaim the previous support zone around $4,350, leaving the key $4,300 support area vulnerable.

Gold’s recovery remains limited amid elevated oil prices, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trading at their highest levels since May. Rising energy prices are fueling global inflation concerns and could pressure central banks to maintain tighter monetary policies.

In the United States, Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report confirmed expectations of accelerating producer inflation. Annual PPI rose to 5.4% in August from 4.8% in July, while core PPI increased to 4.6% year-over-year from 4.3% previously.

Investors have increased their bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike next week, with attention now firmly focused on the U.S. CPI report. The inflation data will be closely watched for further confirmation of the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.

Technical Analysis: Gold Holds Above Bearish H&S Neckline

XAU/USD was trading around $4,344, maintaining a mildly bearish short-term bias as it remained above the neckline of a potential bearish Head-and-Shoulders (H&S) pattern.

Momentum indicators on the daily chart point to moderate bearish pressure that is gradually strengthening. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved further below the key 50 level, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in negative territory.

Thursday’s recovery attempt struggled to break above the September 8 and 9 lows around $4,350. This resistance zone continues to limit the upside and keeps the focus on the more significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,538.

On the downside, a bearish break below the September trading low near $4,282 would activate the Head-and-Shoulders pattern and increase selling pressure toward the August 6 low around $4,220.

The measured target of the bearish H&S pattern lies slightly below the year-to-date low near $3,940, highlighting the potential for a deeper correction if the $4,282 support level is decisively breached.

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Antam Gold Outlook

Antam Gold Price Under Pressure, Analyst Sees Potential to Reach Rp3 Million per Gram

Antam gold prices have fallen significantly from their record high reached in early 2026. Despite the recent decline, the outlook for gold prices through the end of the year remains positive, with current levels still considered attractive for gradual accumulation.

On Thursday (September 10, 2026), the price of Antam gold stood at Rp2.625 million per gram, significantly below its record high of Rp3.168 million per gram reached in late January 2026. Meanwhile, Antam’s gold buyback price was recorded at Rp2.475 million per gram.

Doo Financial Futures currency analyst Lukman Leong said the outlook for gold prices through the end of 2026 remains relatively positive. The analyst consensus expects international spot gold prices to reach around $4,800 to $5,000 per ounce, representing potential upside of more than 10%.

“Gold’s outlook through the end of 2026 remains quite positive, with analyst consensus expecting international spot gold prices to range between $4,800 and $5,000 per ounce,” Lukman told Kontan on Thursday (September 10, 2026).

Assuming the Indonesian rupiah remains around its current level against the U.S. dollar, Lukman estimates that Antam gold prices could reach between Rp2.9 million and Rp3 million per gram by the end of 2026.

Gold Remains Attractive for Gradual Accumulation

Lukman acknowledged that gold prices are currently relatively high compared with their levels a month ago. However, he believes current prices remain attractive for investors looking to begin accumulating gold.

Investors should not expect gold prices to rise in a straight line through the end of the year, he said. Instead, periods of price corrections could provide opportunities to gradually increase gold holdings.

Under this strategy, a decline in gold prices can be viewed as an opportunity to accumulate rather than a reason to exit the market. The approach may be particularly suitable for investors with medium- to long-term investment horizons.

With the international gold market still supported by a positive outlook, Antam gold prices could have room to recover toward the Rp3 million-per-gram level by the end of 2026, provided global gold prices and the rupiah exchange rate remain supportive.

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Gold Tops $4,400

Gold Rebounds Above $4,400 as Weaker Dollar Eases Fed Pressure

Gold prices rose on Wednesday, rebounding above $4,400 per ounce after three consecutive sessions of losses. The recovery was supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, while investors continued to monitor escalating tensions in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.

At 09:04 WIB, spot gold (XAU/USD) climbed 1.1% to $4,402.41 per ounce, while Gold Futures gained 0.2% to $4,445.85. Silver (XAG/USD) advanced 1.5% to $66.76 per ounce, while platinum (XPT/USD) rose 1.6% to $1,848.23. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.2% to 98.70.

Weaker Dollar Gives Gold Some Relief

Gold staged a strong rebound after falling 2.6% over the previous three trading sessions, with spot bullion moving back above the $4,400 level. The recovery was supported by a weaker dollar as investors assessed whether renewed Middle East tensions could keep inflationary pressures elevated.

However, gold remains well below last week’s levels after stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data revived expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at its September 14–15 meeting.

Markets are currently pricing in around a 60% probability of a Fed rate hike this month. Higher interest rates typically weigh on gold because the precious metal does not offer a yield. As bond yields rise, investors have greater incentives to shift toward income-generating assets.

The market’s primary focus is now on upcoming U.S. inflation data. A hotter-than-expected reading could strengthen expectations for another Fed rate hike and put renewed pressure on gold prices. Conversely, softer inflation data could give policymakers greater room to leave interest rates unchanged.

Middle East Tensions Keep Inflation Risks Elevated

Geopolitical tensions remain another key factor influencing gold prices. U.S. forces recently destroyed five Iranian oil tankers carrying crude near Kharg Island, Iran’s major oil export hub, following an attempted missile attack on an American warship.

The incident has raised concerns that the months-long conflict could escalate further and disrupt regional energy supplies.

Brent crude oil prices remain close to $100 per barrel, keeping inflation risks elevated ahead of the Fed meeting. Higher energy costs could feed through to consumer prices and make policymakers more reluctant to ease financial conditions.

ANZ analysts said investors appear to be reducing their exposure to gold ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Rising energy costs have pushed bond yields higher, creating additional headwinds for bullion. However, they noted that the pressure has not stopped central banks from continuing to accumulate gold.

China’s central bank purchased around 650,000 ounces of gold in August, marking its largest monthly addition since 2023. Continued central bank purchases provide an important source of underlying demand despite the recent pressure on gold prices.

Gold has remained within a relatively narrow range around $4,400 since rebounding from the $4,000 area in July. Although the latest decline pushed prices below the 200-day moving average, long-term demand from central banks and investors continues to provide a counterbalance to short-term pressure from bond yields, oil prices, and expectations for tighter Fed policy.

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Gold Eyes CPI

Gold Supported by Weak USD as Markets Await Key US CPI Data

Gold attracted fresh buying during the Asian session, snapping a two-day losing streak as the recent pullback in the US Dollar from a three-week high gained momentum amid a strong rally in the Japanese Yen.

However, expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve, combined with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, continue to support demand for the safe-haven US Dollar and limit gains in non-yielding gold.

The precious metal remains above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $4,288 and the broader Fibonacci support zone, keeping the short-term outlook constructive despite fading momentum.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 points to a neutral-to-slightly bullish bias. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero, with a reading of around -24, suggesting that upward momentum has weakened following the latest pullback.

Gold Price Technical Outlook

The mixed technical signals suggest that gold could face initial resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June-August advance, around $4,523.

A sustained break above this level could expose the recent swing high and the upper Fibonacci reference near $4,697.36. A decisive move above this zone would potentially reopen the path toward further gains.

On the downside, initial support is located at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $4,415, followed by the 50.0% retracement around $4,328 and the 61.8% level near $4,241.94.

The 200-day EMA around $4,288 also provides an important layer of broader trend support just below the current market price.

US Inflation Data in Focus

Traders appear reluctant to take aggressive directional positions ahead of the latest US inflation data due later this week.

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) is scheduled for release on Thursday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. The reports will be closely watched for fresh clues about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path amid renewed inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices.

The inflation data could have a significant impact on short-term US Dollar dynamics and, consequently, gold prices.

Meanwhile, traders have increased their bets on a potential Federal Reserve rate hike later this month after the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed stronger employment growth in August.

USD Support Seen Ahead of Key CPI Release

OCBC strategists described the latest US payrolls report as “marginally USD-supportive” but not strong enough on its own to generate a sustained dollar rally.

They argued that stronger employment data highlights the resilience of the US economy and keeps the risk of further Federal Reserve tightening alive, which could limit the downside in the US Dollar.

However, with wage pressures remaining contained, OCBC expects markets to require stronger inflation evidence before assigning greater confidence to a September rate hike.

Against this backdrop, attention has shifted to this week’s CPI report. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could trigger a fresh USD rally, while a softer figure could leave price action more mixed.

Geopolitical Risks Support Safe-Haven Dollar

Meanwhile, escalating tensions between the United States and Iran are keeping geopolitical risk premiums elevated and could limit further weakness in the safe-haven US Dollar.

Iran has threatened to retaliate against any new US attacks on its assets while warning that energy infrastructure across the Gulf remains vulnerable.

Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei also said Tehran was preparing for a potential full blockade around the Strait of Hormuz in response to economic sanctions, raising concerns over prolonged disruptions to global oil supplies.

Investors remain concerned that elevated energy prices could reignite inflationary pressures and strengthen the case for tighter Federal Reserve policy. This could encourage renewed buying of the US Dollar on dips and create additional headwinds for XAU/USD.

As a result, gold buyers may need to wait for strong follow-through buying before anticipating a meaningful upside move and a sustained recovery from last week’s more-than-one-month low.

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Gold Awaits NFP

 

Gold Buyers Hesitate Below $4,500 as Modest US Dollar Rebound Caps Gains Ahead of NFP

Gold prices remained defensive below the key $4,500 level during Friday’s Asian session, pausing a two-day rally as the U.S. Dollar staged a modest recovery. Despite the pullback, the precious metal continued to trade near its weekly high reached in the previous session, with investors closely watching the upcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

The highly anticipated U.S. employment data is expected to play a crucial role in shaping market expectations for the Fed’s September meeting, especially as speculation surrounding another interest-rate hike continues to fade.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Constructive Above Key Support Levels

From a technical perspective, gold maintains a bullish short-term bias, holding above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of its recent decline.

Momentum indicators continue to favor the upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 56, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above the zero line with a positive histogram, signaling healthy bullish momentum without entering overbought territory.

Gold is currently testing the important 50% Fibonacci retracement barrier near $4,500. A decisive breakout above this level could pave the way toward the 61.8% retracement at around $4,540. Further resistance is located near the 78.6% retracement level at $4,609, followed by a major swing-high cluster around $4,698.

On the downside, initial support is seen near the 38.2% retracement level at $4,442. Additional support lies around $4,381 at the 23.6% retracement level, while the 200-period SMA at $4,322 and the structural low near $4,283 continue to reinforce the broader bullish outlook.

Traders Await US Jobs Data as Fed Tone Turns More Hawkish

According to analysts at TD Securities, Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report is the next major catalyst for precious metals markets as investors navigate renewed hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and ongoing volatility in energy markets.

The bank noted that while short-term risks remain tied to incoming economic data, the broader outlook for precious metals has improved due to expectations of a weaker U.S. dollar and uncertainty surrounding further Fed tightening.

Ahead of the jobs report, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated on Thursday that he would favor keeping interest rates unchanged at the September FOMC meeting, provided upcoming inflation data does not deliver an upside surprise.

His comments triggered a sharp decline in both U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar, helping gold recover from its four-week low recorded on Wednesday. However, rising energy prices continue to pose inflation risks that could still support the case for another rate hike later this month.

As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded from a one-and-a-half-week low, limiting further gains in gold prices.

Middle East Tensions Keep Safe-Haven Demand Alive

Crude oil prices remain near their highest levels since July 24 amid renewed tensions between the United States and Iran, as well as ongoing clashes around the Strait of Hormuz.

Geopolitical concerns intensified after reports that Iran targeted U.S. military bases in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates on Thursday. Meanwhile, U.S. Vice President JD Vance stated that President Donald Trump retains several options for dealing with Tehran, including economic, military, diplomatic, and covert measures.

Adding to regional uncertainty, South Korea is reportedly preparing to deploy military assets to support freedom of navigation operations in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz before the end of the year.

These developments continue to sustain geopolitical risk premiums, supporting crude oil prices and maintaining demand for safe-haven assets such as the U.S. Dollar.

Gold Needs a Break Above $4,500 to Confirm Further Upside

Despite lingering headwinds from a stronger dollar, gold appears to have stabilized after its recent corrective decline from the area around $4,700, the highest level since mid-May.

The precious metal remains on track to post moderate weekly gains, but traders are looking for a sustained move above the psychological $4,500 level to confirm a stronger bullish breakout.

With the U.S. jobs report likely to determine the next major move in financial markets, gold traders remain cautious as they await fresh signals on the future path of Federal Reserve policy.

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Gold Eyes Resistance

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Rebounds but Faces $4,470 Resistance

Gold prices recovered on Thursday, climbing back above the $4,400 level after falling to a three-week low near $4,280 on Wednesday. The rebound in XAU/USD was supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, disappointing ADP employment data, and comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams that eased expectations of an immediate interest-rate hike.

Despite the recovery, expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy remain relatively firm. As a result, gold buyers could face strong resistance around the $4,470 level in the near term.

U.S. private-sector employment increased by only 38,000 jobs in August, according to data released on Wednesday. The figure was the weakest since January and came well below market expectations for a 47,000 increase, highlighting signs of cooling in the U.S. labor market.

Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams said that rising Treasury yields reflected the strength of the U.S. economy rather than renewed inflation concerns. He also suggested that the Federal Reserve should take a “wait-and-see” approach before making further interest-rate decisions.

Williams’ comments helped reduce expectations of an immediate rate hike. However, futures markets were still pricing in roughly a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point interest-rate increase at the September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Gold Price Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Faces Key Resistance

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD has rebounded from its recent low and returned toward the $4,430 area. However, the gold price outlook remains mildly bearish in the short term following a sharp reversal from last week’s high near $4,700.

Momentum indicators are currently mixed. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) is around 52, placing it in neutral territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below the zero line. These signals suggest that bullish momentum has yet to gain enough strength to confirm a sustained recovery.

The first major resistance for gold buyers is located near the August 31 high at $4,470. A decisive break above this level could strengthen the bullish outlook and shift attention toward the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,533.

If XAU/USD manages to break and hold above the 200-day SMA, the next upside target could be last week’s high near $4,690. A move toward this level would indicate that the recent correction is losing momentum and that buyers are regaining control.

On the downside, the $4,310 area is an important support level. A break below the August 14 low near $4,310 would strengthen the bearish outlook and confirm a Head and Shoulders pattern.

Such a breakdown could expose the August 6 low near $4,220, followed by the late-July low around the psychologically important $4,000 level.

For now, the $4,470 resistance zone remains a key level for gold traders. A sustained break above this barrier could open the door to further gains toward $4,533 and potentially $4,690. Conversely, failure to overcome resistance could trigger renewed selling pressure and push XAU/USD toward lower support levels.

Traders will continue to monitor U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve rate expectations for fresh catalysts that could determine the next major move in gold prices.

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Gold Stocks Slide

Asian Gold Stocks Slide as Gold Prices Fall, Sumitomo Metal Mining Plunges 11%

Asian gold mining stocks fell sharply on Wednesday as investors continued to unwind positions in precious metals following the latest decline in gold prices. Sumitomo Metal Mining was among the biggest losers, plunging more than 11%.

Shares of Sumitomo Metal Mining (TYO:5713) dropped 11.15% to 10,080 yen. Westgold Resources (ASX:WGX) fell 6.19% to A$6.06, while Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) declined 5.32% to A$22.43.

Other Australian-listed gold miners also came under heavy selling pressure. Perseus Mining fell 3.63%, Ramelius Resources declined 3.46%, Genesis Minerals dropped 3.36%, Regis Resources lost 3.44%, and Evolution Mining slipped 2.95%.

In Hong Kong, Lingbao Gold fell 2.31%, Zijin Gold International declined 2.71%, and Zhaojin Mining Industry dropped 2.89%. Meanwhile, Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold fell 2.75% and 1.79%, respectively.

Gold Decline Weighs on Mining Stocks

The sell-off in gold mining stocks followed another decline in bullion prices. Spot gold fell to its lowest level in more than three weeks on Wednesday and remained below its 200-day moving average, adding to the bearish pressure on precious-metal equities.

Higher oil prices, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and a stronger U.S. dollar have fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates. Higher interest rates typically weigh on non-yielding assets such as gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

Gold has now declined for four consecutive sessions, extending its retreat from last week's record high. The sharp reversal has quickly spilled over into gold mining stocks, which had previously benefited significantly from the strong rally in bullion prices over recent months.

Australian Gold Miners Under Pressure

The weakness was particularly pronounced in Australia, where gold miners ranked among the worst-performing stocks on the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index.

Pantoro Gold, Westgold Resources, and Kingsgate Consolidated each declined by roughly 6% to 7.5%, highlighting the broad-based selling pressure across the sector.

The broader Australian market also weakened, with the S&P/ASX 200 falling around 1.1%. Major Asian equity benchmarks posted deeper losses as rising oil prices and higher bond yields intensified risk-off sentiment across regional markets.

With gold prices remaining under pressure, investors are closely watching developments in U.S. monetary policy, Treasury yields, the dollar, and commodity markets for further clues about the outlook for gold and gold mining stocks.

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