Gold Faces Yield Pressure

Light Data Week, But Gold Remains Under Bond Yield Pressure

The 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded at the end of the session after initially reacting negatively to Friday's surprise Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. The rebound in Treasury yields also helped the US Dollar recover after its earlier decline, preventing gold from extending its rally.

US Nonfarm Payrolls for September came in at just 29,000, well below the 89,000 forecast. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2%, adding to the series of surprises in the US labor market last Friday.

However, the weak jobs data failed to generate a lasting reaction in the bond market. Pressure on Treasury yields was initially limited before yields rebounded, ultimately pushing gold lower toward the end of Friday's trading session.

Bond Yields Remain Above 5%

Gold has yet to establish a new low since July despite continued pressure from elevated 10-year Treasury yields, which remain above 5%.

Deutsche Bank's head of research told Bloomberg that gold is currently in an oversold condition, making the precious metal an attractive asset for next year. Nevertheless, Deutsche Bank warned that thin liquidity during Golden Week could leave gold vulnerable to a sharp correction in the near term.

Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, sees $4,000 per ounce as a strong support level for gold. Amy Gower of Morgan Stanley said the decline toward a seven-week low has not weakened the long-term case for holding gold and that the precious metal remains attractive from a 12-month investment perspective.

Gower acknowledged that rising Treasury yields and increasing expectations for further Fed rate hikes remain challenges for gold. However, she also noted that further intervention in the bond market or a shift in inflation expectations could push Treasury yields lower.

A rapid de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, which has been ongoing for seven months, could also drive oil prices lower and ease inflation expectations, potentially providing additional support for gold.

Gower identified three key factors that could continue supporting gold prices over the next 12 months: Chinese demand, concerns over debt levels, and the possibility of easing inflation expectations driven by lower oil prices.

From this perspective, Morgan Stanley continues to view gold as an attractive asset over the next 12 months, with $4,000 per ounce serving as a strong downside support level.

Key Events This Week

Overall, this week's economic calendar is relatively light compared with the previous week. The ISM Services PMI is the only major economic release likely to become a significant market catalyst and is scheduled for Monday.

Later in the week, the market will also receive the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report on Friday, while the Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting minutes are due in the middle of the week.

The FOMC Minutes are scheduled for release late Wednesday or early Thursday. The minutes cover the September FOMC meeting, when the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points and projected one additional rate hike in 2026, while policymakers showed significant disagreement over the 2027 rate path.

The weaker August PCE inflation data and softer September NFP report have reduced expectations for an October rate hike. However, the FOMC minutes may not fully reflect these latest developments and could instead highlight differences among policymakers regarding the future path of interest rates.

ISM Services PMI in Focus

Before the FOMC minutes, the market will focus on the ISM Services PMI, scheduled for release at 21:00 WIB on Monday.

The index is expected to edge higher from 55.4 to 55.7. Following last week's weaker-than-expected ISM Manufacturing report, traders will closely watch whether the services sector also delivers a downside surprise.

A weaker-than-expected ISM Services reading could trigger a rebound in gold prices during the US session. Conversely, a reading that comes in significantly above expectations could put additional pressure on gold.

Gold Price Scenarios

Base Scenario

The base scenario assumes NFP comes in within the 80,000–89,000 or 90,000–95,000 range. These figures would represent a moderate result and are considered the most likely scenario.

Such a reading would still indicate a weaker labor market compared with the previous month, which could generally support gold prices. Gold may initially experience some downside volatility after the release, but the overall bias could remain upward.

Bearish Scenario

The bearish scenario assumes NFP comes in between 100,000 and 125,000 jobs.

Although this would still be below the previous month's 167,000, the result could nevertheless trigger selling pressure in gold. In this scenario, $4,100 could become the key support level, followed by the $4,040 area.

The most extreme bearish reaction would occur if NFP unexpectedly jumps above 135,000 or 150,000. Such a strong employment report could significantly reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts or reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy.

Under this scenario, gold could extend its decline toward $4,000–$4,020, with the possibility of testing support near $3,965.

Bullish Scenario

The bullish scenario assumes NFP comes in below 75,000 jobs.

A significantly weaker employment report could trigger a strong gold rebound, with buyers potentially pushing the precious metal back above $4,200 and toward $4,230.

The strongest bullish reaction would likely occur if NFP unexpectedly falls below 50,000. In that case, gold could gain enough momentum to test resistance around $4,250 or potentially move higher toward the $4,300 area.

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Gold NFP Scenarios

Brace for NFP Surprise: Gold Scenarios to Watch

Gold

Market Drivers

The 10-year US Treasury yield closed lower on the day after climbing to 5.342%. However, the US Dollar continued to strengthen, leaving gold caught between opposing forces and trading within a relatively narrow range between $4,139 and $4,192.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.5, below expectations of 55.0, while weekly jobless claims stood at 197,000 versus expectations of 200,000.

However, the ISM Prices Paid component jumped to 77.9, well above the 72.3 forecast and reaching its highest level since May. The figure reflected the market's reaction following the data release. The 30-year Treasury yield also continued to rise, reaching a new high of 5.69%.

Overall, manufacturing activity remained relatively stable.

Geopolitical Developments

There were no major new developments on the geopolitical front, although several updates provided mixed signals.

A Wall Street Journal report said that Trump had told his advisers about the possibility of continuing military action after the midterm elections. While this is not a new position, the repeated comments remain relevant for markets.

Meanwhile, other reports indicated that Iran had offered nuclear inspections in exchange for sanctions relief.

Additional reports pointed to increased oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline routes. However, these developments failed to significantly ease oil prices.

More recently, reports emerged that a tanker had been attacked near Oman. This development warrants attention over the weekend because it could increase the risk of further attacks or trigger additional pressure from the US in response to the incident.

Nonfarm Payrolls in Focus

The market is now expected to prioritize economic data, with the September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report representing the week's key release at 19:30 WIB.

NFP is expected to fall from 162,000 to around 89,000, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.1% and Average Hourly Earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month.

As usual, a weaker-than-expected employment report would likely support gold, while stronger-than-expected data could put additional pressure on the precious metal.

However, several potential scenarios should be mapped out ahead of the release.

Base Scenario

The base scenario assumes NFP comes in around 80,000-89,000 or 90,000-95,000.

These figures would represent a moderate result and broadly align with the baseline scenario. A reading below the previous month's figure would generally support gold.

Gold could still experience some initial volatility following the release, but the overall bias would favor a gradual recovery as long as the employment data does not significantly exceed expectations.

Bearish Scenario

The bearish scenario assumes NFP comes in between 100,000 and 125,000.

Although this would still be below the previous month's 167,000 figure, the stronger-than-expected result could weigh on gold. In this scenario, $4,100 would become an important support level, followed by the $4,040 area.

The most extreme downside reaction could occur if NFP unexpectedly jumps above 135,000 or 150,000.

Such a result could increase expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve and potentially push gold toward the $4,000-$4,020 area, with a further downside risk toward $3,965.

Bullish Scenario

The bullish scenario assumes NFP comes in below 75,000.

A significantly weaker employment report could trigger a rebound in gold, potentially allowing the price to break back above $4,200 and target the $4,230 area.

The strongest bullish reaction could occur if NFP unexpectedly falls below 50,000.

In that case, gold could gain enough momentum to challenge resistance around $4,250, with the potential to extend toward the $4,300 area.

Gold Technical Analysis

The daily candlestick closed as a spinning top, characterized by relatively similar upper and lower shadows and a small real body. This pattern reflects a balanced market and signals uncertainty between buyers and sellers.

The formation suggests that traders remain in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the week's most important economic release, the Nonfarm Payrolls report at 19:30 WIB.

A weaker-than-expected employment report would generally support gold, while stronger data could reinforce selling pressure.

From a technical perspective, $4,223 resistance and $4,110 support are the two key levels to watch.

A break above $4,223 could make it easier for gold to extend its recovery, with $4,255 and $4,310 representing the next resistance levels.

Conversely, a break below $4,110 could expose gold to further downside toward $4,045 and $4,000, with the more distant downside target around $3,965.

With the NFP report likely to trigger significant volatility, the market could see sharp moves in either direction depending on how the actual employment figures compare with expectations.

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Gold Awaits NFP Data

 

Gold

Market Drivers

The US 10-year Treasury yield closed higher again, making it difficult for gold to extend the gains triggered by the PCE data. The US Dollar also strengthened as a result. Rising Treasury yields combined with a stronger US Dollar generally create an unfavorable environment for gold prices.

The ADP Employment Change report came in significantly above expectations at 90K versus 73K, also rising sharply from the previous month's 38K. Meanwhile, PCE inflation unexpectedly came in softer than forecast. Headline PCE rose 3.4% year over year, below the 3.7% expectation, while Core PCE increased 3.0% year over year, below the 3.3% forecast. These developments prompted markets to reassess expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike in October.

Fed Has Room to Wait

The three major data releases last night produced mixed signals, but inflation remained the key focus for market participants. August PCE inflation came in below expectations, while second-quarter growth was revised higher. At the same time, a wider goods trade deficit contributed to a sharp decline in the Atlanta Federal Reserve's estimate for third-quarter economic growth.

For investors, the combination suggests that the Federal Reserve may still have room to remain patient rather than rush into another rate hike, although inflation and growth risks have not disappeared.

Goldman Sachs has shifted its forecast for the next Federal Reserve rate hike from October to December. This view is also consistent with comments from New York Fed President John Williams. Williams said one more rate hike this year could be sufficient if the economy develops as expected, adding that there is no urgency to deliver another increase immediately after the September hike.

Futures markets are now pricing in roughly a 37% probability of an October rate hike, down significantly from the beginning of the week when expectations briefly exceeded 70%.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for release at 21:00 WIB. The September reading is expected to increase to 54.8 from 54.6. A stronger-than-expected reading could put additional pressure on gold. Conversely, a softer figure could push gold toward resistance levels, although a decisive breakout is not expected given that Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report remains the key market catalyst.

Gold Technical Analysis

The daily candlestick closed bearish after the upside move stalled at 4,219, followed by a decline toward a closing level of 4,157. Economic data remained mixed, with ADP significantly exceeding expectations while PCE inflation came in softer than forecast. Gold initially reacted positively to the softer PCE reading before the stronger ADP data later weighed on prices.

Technically, the 4,223 resistance level remains effective, with the latest rally stalling just below it at 4,219. However, downside pressure is not expected to extend below the 4,100–4,110 area under normal conditions. Therefore, the overall trading range is expected to remain within the 4,110–4,220 zone unless the ISM Manufacturing PMI comes in substantially stronger than expected.

H4 Analysis

On the H4 timeframe, price action has generally followed expectations. The large Falling Wedge pattern that had been identified produced an upside swing toward the brown zone, with the highest price reaching the area between the brown zone at 4,179–4,203 and the green zone at 4,229–4,259.

Based on the current setup, the upside move is expected to remain limited as the market continues to await Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is likely to serve as the key economic catalyst for gold this week.

Key Levels:

• Resistance: 4,223; 4,229–4,259

• Near-term zone: 4,110–4,220

• Support: 4,100–4,110

• H4 resistance area: 4,179–4,203

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Cabral Gold Ships First Doré

Cabral Gold Inc. (TSXV: CBR; OTCQX: CBGZF) has completed its first sale of doré from the Cuiú Cuiú Gold District in Pará, Brazil, selling more than 2,400 ounces of gold at an average realized net price of over $4,200 per ounce, according to a press release issued today.

The company said the sale to a Brazilian refinery confirms that its mine-to-market supply chain is operational. The project remains on schedule and within budget for commercial production in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Operations at the dry plant have transitioned to 24-hour operations across two shifts. Mining activities continue primarily on a 12-hour schedule, with accumulated run-of-mine ore stockpiles being used to supply the dry plant during the night shift.

The project has recorded 664,800 combined work hours in 2026, with one Lost Time Incident, resulting in a Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate of 0.30 per 200,000 hours worked.

Cabral Gold owns a 100% interest in the Cuiú Cuiú Gold District. The property hosts NI 43-101-compliant indicated resources of 12.29 million tonnes grading 1.14 grams of gold per tonne in fresh basement material, as well as 13.56 million tonnes grading 0.50 grams of gold per tonne in oxide material.

The company's Phase 1 gold-in-oxide heap leach operation is based on an NI 43-101 preliminary feasibility study technical report.

Alan Carter, the company's President and CEO, said the milestone reflects the performance of the Brazilian operations team and confirms that key components of the operational supply chain are now in place.

The Cuiú Cuiú District has historically been one of the largest placer mining areas in the Tapajós region. According to estimates from Brazil's National Mining Agency, the area produced between 30 million and 50 million ounces of placer gold from 1978 to 1995.

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Gold Support Holds

$4,100 Support Holds, but Gold's Upside Awaits US-Iran Mediation

Market Drivers

The 10-year US Treasury yield closed higher again, supporting further US dollar strength. This trend continued throughout Monday's trading session, making it difficult for gold to recover as the precious metal extended its decline toward $4,110.

Meanwhile, the latest US Treasury auction results showed relatively weak demand for government bonds, reinforcing concerns over soft demand for US Treasuries. This also contributed to the continued rise in Treasury yields.

Trump Denies Iran Sanctions Relief Offer

The reports were published by two international media outlets, Al Jazeera and Axios, citing the same source. The reports said the US and Iran had continued positive discussions, with Iran reportedly showing flexibility regarding its nuclear program. However, the two sides remained divided over which party should take the first step.

A second report claimed that President Donald Trump was willing to provide sanctions relief to Iran and release frozen funds in exchange for concrete progress on the nuclear issue.

CNN later published a similar report, citing a US official who reportedly said Trump was willing to consider sanctions relief and the release of frozen Iranian funds.

However, Trump denied the reports, calling the information "hoax" and demanding that Axios retract its report. Hopes for de-escalation subsequently faded, putting renewed pressure on gold and pushing prices back toward $4,110.

Nevertheless, mediation efforts remain ongoing, with mediators continuing to act as a channel for proposals between the two sides. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran had already conveyed its demands through Qatar, with an official US response expected to be delivered through the mediator by Tuesday local time at the latest, potentially Tuesday night or early Wednesday in Indonesia.

Key Focus Tonight

The US Consumer Confidence Index and JOLTS Job Openings data are scheduled for release at 21:00 WIB. If the data come in stronger than expected, gold could face renewed downside pressure. Conversely, weaker-than-expected economic data could create room for a rebound in gold prices.

However, the key event that markets are closely watching is the US response to Iran's demands through Qatari mediation. Traders will be looking for signs of whether the diplomatic process can move forward.

If no agreement is reached and Trump continues to reject Iran's proposal, gold could remain under pressure, with the $4,020 and $3,965 zones potentially coming into focus. On the other hand, signs of an agreement—or at least an indication that negotiations could continue into another round—could provide room for a gold rebound.

Gold Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, gold closed with a bearish candle featuring a long real body as selling pressure continued toward $4,110 following a gap-down opening. Gold fell from around $4,266 to $4,110 during the session.

From a technical perspective, downside pressure could remain dominant in the near term. However, the possibility of a technical rebound remains open as long as the $4,100-$4,120 support zone, highlighted in the previous analysis, remains intact.

Even so, any rebound is expected to remain relatively limited unless stronger bullish catalysts emerge. Weaker economic data and progress in US-Iran mediation could become the main drivers for a recovery. Conversely, unexpectedly strong economic data combined with stalled mediation could trigger renewed selling pressure, potentially sending gold toward the $4,040-$4,060 zone or even the $3,965 area.

H4 Technical Outlook

On the H4 chart, selling pressure continued after gold broke below two support zones: the green $4,229-$4,259 area and the brown $4,179-$4,203 area. Both zones have now turned into potential resistance.

Technically, further downside remains possible, with the next potential target located around the pink $4,019-$4,049 zone.

Previously, selling pressure stalled around $4,110, which is close to the $4,100-$4,120 zone that had been identified as psychological support and a potential buying area. At the time of writing, the intraday low remained at $4,113 before gold rebounded toward $4,140.

This suggests that the support zone is still holding in line with the previous expectation that a technical rebound could develop, particularly as the RSI had entered oversold territory.

The latest candle closed bullish, while gold continued attempting to recover. The RSI has also moved back above 30 after previously entering oversold territory below that level.

If the low remains at $4,113 over the next two to three hours and the swing low does not form a new lower low, the technical rebound scenario could remain viable. Traders may therefore consider a buy strategy to capture a potential short-term rebound, provided the technical conditions remain supportive.

However, the upside target is expected to remain limited. The nearest rebound could face resistance in the brown $4,179-$4,203 zone, while a stronger recovery could extend toward the green $4,229-$4,259 area.

During the New York session, these zones could become potential selling areas if the economic data come in stronger than expected. Conversely, if the data are weaker than expected and gold breaks through these resistance zones, traders could consider maintaining the buy position while monitoring momentum.

If gold reaches either the brown or green resistance zone before the economic data are released, particularly during the European session, traders may consider exiting buy positions and waiting for a reversal candle before looking for a sell setup.

A renewed decline could then retest $4,110 or move even lower if selling pressure intensifies.

Trading Scenarios

The primary scenario remains focused on selling while the market awaits greater clarity on US-Iran mediation, independent of the upcoming economic data.

A successful mediation process could provide a catalyst for a stronger gold rebound, while a failure in negotiations could reinforce selling pressure.

At the same time, traders can still consider a technical rebound strategy after a sharp sell-off. The setup remains consistent with the conditions highlighted in the previous analysis: a reversal candle, an RSI reading below 30 indicating oversold conditions, and execution once the market begins to stabilize after heavy selling.

This strategy remains valid as long as the $4,100-$4,120 support zone holds. A stop-loss could be placed below $4,110, although positioning it below the psychological $4,100 level would provide greater room against short-term volatility.

For sell setups, downside pressure could remain dominant if a rebound stalls in the gray $4,161-$4,183 zone, which previously acted as support. If this area is reached before the economic data are released, traders could consider placing a stop-loss above $4,183 to account for the possibility of a stronger technical rebound.

If the bearish scenario plays out, gold could retest the $4,100-$4,120 support zone and potentially break below $4,100.

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Gold Faces Pressure

Gold Falls Nearly 3% as Fed Rate Hike Bets and Rising Treasury Yields Weigh

Gold prices fell sharply at the start of the new week, approaching $4,100 for the first time in eight weeks. Growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, combined with oil-driven inflation risks, have kept U.S. Treasury yields elevated near multi-year highs and supported the U.S. Dollar. The pressure on bullion intensified after U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran's ceasefire proposal.

Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Faces Further Downside Risk

The XAU/USD pair confirmed a fresh break below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June-August advance after repeatedly failing to break above the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Technical indicators continue to point to persistent bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory with a declining profile, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped toward 38, signaling that selling pressure remains elevated.

On the downside, the next major support level is located at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near $4,099. A break below this level could expose the previous swing low around $3,939, which represents a more significant structural support zone where selling pressure could potentially ease.

On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $4,226, followed by the 50% retracement at $4,314 and the 100-period EMA around $4,352. Further resistance levels are located near $4,403 and $4,513.

Fed Rate Hike Expectations Support the U.S. Dollar

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate in mid-September 2026, marking its first rate hike in three years, and signaled that another increase could be implemented before the end of the year.

Several Fed officials have continued to support the possibility of further monetary tightening amid inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in around a 68% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October.

Higher interest rates and Treasury yields can weigh on gold because the non-yielding precious metal becomes less attractive relative to interest-bearing assets. At the same time, expectations of tighter monetary policy have helped underpin the U.S. Dollar, creating additional headwinds for XAU/USD.

USD Strengthens as Hawkish Fed Stance Keeps Risk in Focus

OCBC strategists noted that resilient U.S. economic data, elevated energy prices, and persistent inflation concerns continue to push Treasury yields higher. According to the bank, the environment supports the U.S. Dollar while weighing on interest-rate-sensitive assets and carry-trade positions.

OCBC also pointed to the Fed's recent hawkish rhetoric, citing comments from New York Fed President John Williams and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who warned that inflation risks remain elevated. Philadelphia Fed President Paulson also indicated that moderate additional policy tightening could still be necessary if inflation fails to ease.

The bank noted that market pricing reflects roughly a 70% probability of another 25-basis-point rate hike in October, highlighting growing expectations that the Fed's fight against inflation is not yet over.

Geopolitical Tensions Add Support to the Greenback

Geopolitical uncertainty has provided another boost to the U.S. Dollar, adding further pressure to gold prices.

In the latest development surrounding the Middle East crisis, President Donald Trump rejected Iran's proposal to immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz under certain conditions while calling for an end to the fighting. Trump later warned on Sunday that additional military strikes against Iran could still occur before the U.S. midterm elections.

Meanwhile, Houthi forces have continued attacks involving Saudi Arabia, while Yemeni government forces have intensified air and ground operations against the Iran-backed group.

The developments have raised concerns over a broader regional conflict and prompted traders to reassess geopolitical risk premiums. The resulting support for oil prices could further reinforce inflation concerns, while demand for the U.S. Dollar as a safe-haven asset could increase selling pressure on gold.

PCE Inflation and NFP Data in Focus

Traders will now focus on speeches from FOMC officials, incoming geopolitical developments, and key U.S. economic data that could influence the U.S. Dollar and the XAU/USD pair.

The economic calendar includes the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and final Q2 GDP data on Wednesday, followed by the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

The data could provide fresh clues about inflation, economic growth, and labor market conditions, potentially influencing expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy moves and determining the near-term direction of gold prices.

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Gold Tests Support

Weekend Risks Persist as Key Gold Zone Remains Crucial

Gold

Market Drivers

The U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields both closed higher, with both returning above the 5% level and reaching their highest levels since 2004. The move strengthened the U.S. dollar and put downward pressure on gold. However, the overall trading range remained relatively limited, meaning the decline could not yet be considered extreme.

Initial jobless claims and new home sales both came in stronger than expected. Initial jobless claims stood at 197,000, below the 201,000 forecast, while new home sales reached 684,000, above expectations of 615,000. Gold showed limited reaction to the data, as much of the decline had already occurred before the releases.

U.S. Treasury Selloff Continues

The U.S. Treasury Department's $6 million buyback program appears to have had little impact on the market. Selling pressure on U.S. government bonds continued, pushing long-term Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year and 30-year yields, higher. This time, however, yields rose across the curve, including the 2-year maturity.

With borrowing costs rising and the possibility of another Federal Reserve rate hike remaining on the table, investors are demanding higher yields to hold U.S. Treasuries.

Interestingly, despite the continued rise in Treasury yields, data indicate that investors are still increasing their gold holdings. This may help explain why gold has not suffered a much sharper decline despite higher bond yields. As a result, the traditional relationship of "higher Treasury yields equals lower gold prices" does not always appear to be working as strongly as it did previously.

Good News, Bad News

The negative development is that the United States and Iran have yet to reach a binding agreement. As emphasized by U.S. President Donald Trump, a deal may not be reached until after the U.S. midterm elections in early November.

This could keep markets concerned about the possibility of renewed U.S. military action against Iran and a potential response from Tehran, leaving the risk of energy supply disruptions in focus.

On the other hand, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has signaled an interest in making progress before the U.S. midterm elections. Pezeshkian offered a ceasefire aimed at easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran potentially reopening the waterway if the United States eases its blockade of Iranian ports.

This development could be viewed as a positive signal, as the proposal indicates Iran's willingness to pursue a ceasefire and potentially reduce tensions.

However, no formal agreement has been reached yet. The rebound in oil prices suggests that markets remain uncertain about whether the Trump administration will accept the proposal. This uncertainty is also limiting gold's upside.

If the United States and Iran eventually reach an agreement, gold could have room to recover above the $4,350 level. Conversely, renewed tensions could keep energy supply risks and inflation concerns elevated.

Focus Tonight

Market attention will turn back to U.S. economic data, with durable goods orders due at 19:30 WIB and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report scheduled for 21:00 WIB.

The main focus is likely to be on durable goods orders. A significantly stronger-than-expected reading could put additional pressure on gold, while weaker data could provide room for XAU/USD to recover.

Gold Technical Analysis

The daily gold candlestick closed bearish but resembled a hammer, featuring a longer lower shadow than the upper shadow and a relatively small real body. Technically, this pattern can signal the potential for a rebound following the previous session's selling pressure.

Gold fell as low as $4,244 before recovering and closing around the $4,273 area. This rebound suggests that buyers were still active at lower levels.

Meanwhile, the September 16, 2026 low at $4,235 remains an important psychological support level. So far, the decline has held above this zone. As discussed previously, as long as $4,235 remains intact, demand could gradually push gold back toward the $4,300 area.

However, downside risks remain heading into the weekend. A daily close below $4,235 could expose gold to further losses toward $4,200, with the more extreme downside target around $4,106.

Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data could intensify selling pressure, while geopolitical developments may become less supportive for gold if tensions between the United States and Iran continue to ease, although no formal agreement has been reached.

H4 Gold Analysis

On the H4 chart, the decline toward $4,244 occurred within the $4,229-$4,259 green zone, which had previously been identified as a demand area.

Although gold did not reach our preferred buy level at $4,230, the decline to $4,244 followed by a rebound demonstrates that the support zone remains effective as a demand area.

Given the current market structure, the buying opportunity remains open within the same $4,229-$4,259 zone. Therefore, our overall view remains unchanged, with the key focus on whether gold can continue holding above this demand area.

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